VP Debate Prognostications

I figure there is enough political armchair quarterbacking going on, but not a lot of commentary as to the media/marketing aspect of Thursday’s pending debate between Biden and Palin. I don’t want to necessarily discuss the content (i.e. the issues), but the presentation of the content.

The format of the debate itself is structured to allow less of the informal give-and-take than the presidential debates. The NY Times stated this change was insisted upon by the McCain-Palin ticket, but I don’t know that to be true, nor do I care. It is what it is, and now the two candidates have to deal with it.

Biden’s biggest obstacle is that he not be seen to be attacking Palin. Palin has the luxury of being able to beat Biden senseless. Right or wrong, this is because of the gender of the two candidates. I don’t think it is possible for Biden to avoid this obstacle, and I’d actually recommend he embrace it as a part of his strategy. It’s the “West Wing” adage: if you’re already perceived to be something (in this case, aggressive and caustic), you might as well incorporate it into your game plan. I think Biden needs to wait for Palin to fire the first shot, but once that’s happened, again using the “West Wing” lexicon, “Game on.” He’ll still be slammed by the conservatives, but the liberal spin-masters can respond by stating he would have done the same thing to a male candidate, and unless the conservatives want to make Palin’s gender a part of the discussion, it would be a successful tactic.

Palin’s biggest obstacle is that she appear candid and non-evasive. People from both parties have criticized her unavailability to the press. And the handful of interviews she has granted haven’t produced much more than regurgitated lines from her stump speech. Palin can overcome this obstacle several ways. She could try to carve a place for herself, proving she can be her own woman, exuding intelligence instead of bravado. But the method I think she is going to employ is more of the same. I think she’ll continue to mock Obama’s ideas or point out how many times Obama has agreed with McCain’s ideas, implying McCain is the better candidate. I think you could create a debate drinking game where you have to take a chug every time Palin uses the words “maverick” or “hockey mom.” Some think she’s going to really extend herself in this debate, but, frankly, I think she will continue to downplay whatever intelligence she has.

Something I haven’t heard discussed is that while the media is focused on Palin’s unavailability, Biden’s contribution to his party’s campaign has been largely ignored. On the one hand, the press is screaming to get the attention of a candidate, while, on the other hand, the press has no genuine interest in the candidate offering unlimited face time.

People don’t generally vote for the bottom half of the ticket (though, in my case, I am casting my vote against one of the VP candidates), and I don’t think this debate will change the numbers. Everybody’s approval ratings will stay where they are, or at least stay within the margins (+/- 3%).